Important Economic Events and Central Bank Decisions in the Upcoming Week

Important Economic Events and Central Bank Decisions in the Upcoming Week

Monday:

• Chinese Economic Data (February)
• US Retail Sales (February)

Tuesday:

• Eurozone Trade Balance (January)
• German ZEW Index (March)
• Canadian Consumer Prices (February)
• Japanese Trade Balance (February)
• NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Speech at GTC

Wednesday:

• FOMC Decision
• BoJ Decision
• Final Eurozone Inflation Rate (February)
• New Zealand GDP (Q4)

Thursday:

• BoE Decision
• SNB Decision
• Riksbank Decision
• PBoC Interest Rate Setting
• Australian Labor Market Data (February)
• UK Labor Market Data (January)
• Japanese Inflation Data (February)

Friday:

• Quadruple Witching Day
• Russian Central Bank Decision

Details on Key Data and Events

Chinese Economic Data (Monday):

• Industrial production expected to decline from 6.2% to 5.4% Y/Y.
• Retail sales could rise from 3.7% to 4.0%.
• Fixed investments may grow from 3.2% to 3.8%.
• ING predicts higher retail sales due to trade promotion programs, while industrial production may suffer from weaker external demand.
• US tariffs: 10% (since February 4) and 20% (since March 4) on Chinese goods could have an additional impact.

US Retail Sales (Monday):

• Expected: +0.7% M/M (previously -0.9%).
• Excluding autos: +0.5% M/M (previously -0.4%).
• Bank of America expects a modest increase of +0.3% M/M after seasonal adjustments.
• Higher incomes drive growth, while rising food prices put pressure on lower-income households.

Nvidia GTC (Tuesday):

• CEO Jensen Huang speaks on March 18, followed by a Q&A session on March 19.
• Expected announcements:
  • Blackwell B300 series (H2 2025) with improved performance.
  • Rubin GPU series (2026), promising a significant performance leap.
  • Possible updates on NVL288 single-rack products and quantum computing initiatives.
• Analysts from Citigroup and BofA remain optimistic about NVDA stock.

Canadian Consumer Prices (Tuesday):

• February data does not yet reflect the impact of new US tariffs.
• Companies report rising costs due to:
  • Weaker CAD
  • Trade conflicts affecting supply chains
  • Need for new, more expensive suppliers
• 50% of businesses plan price increases if tariffs are implemented.
• BoC will closely monitor inflation and its economic impact.

FOMC Decision (Wednesday):

• The Fed is expected to hold rates at 4.25-4.50%.
• The first rate cut is expected in June, with a total of 70 basis points in cuts by year-end.
• US growth could be -2.4% in Q1 (adjusted to -0.4% after considering gold imports), according to Atlanta Fed.
• Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance on rate cuts.

BoJ Decision (Wednesday):

• Expectation: No change in interest rates.
• A Reuters survey shows 61 out of 62 economists expect policy to remain unchanged.
• Market pricing reflects a 92% probability of no change.
• The last rate hike in January (+25bps) remains in place.

BoE Decision (Thursday):

• Expectation: No change in interest rates.
• Inflation in the UK remains a key concern for the central bank.
• Strong labor market data could support a more restrictive stance.

SNB Decision (Thursday):

• Analysts are divided on whether the Swiss National Bank will consider rate cuts.
• The strong Swiss franc continues to pressure the export sector.

Riksbank Decision (Thursday):

• No rate cut expected, as inflation remains above target.
• However, the Swedish economy shows signs of slowing down.

PBoC Interest Rate Decision (Thursday):

• The market expects stable interest rates, but the PBoC may introduce easing measures in the coming months to support growth.

This week features significant economic events and central bank decisions that are highly relevant for traders and investors. 🚀

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