What This Weekend’s Canadian Election Means for the CAD

What This Weekend’s Canadian Election Means for the CAD

In short: Markets have largely priced in a clear Liberal victory under Mark Carney, meaning little short-term impact on the Canadian dollar (CAD). However, a surprise win by the Conservatives could trigger a notable rally in the CAD.

According to the latest CBC polls, the Liberals are projected to win between 151 and 226 seats, with the central estimate at 191 seats—well above the 170 needed for an absolute majority.
The Conservatives are polling between 94 and 156 seats, the Bloc Québécois between 12 and 29, and the New Democrats between 0 and 18.

Markets appear to be factoring in a stable Liberal government. Any deviation from this expected outcome could spark market volatility and a strong CAD reaction.

From a technical perspective, USD/CAD has pulled back from the 1.4675 resistance level, as anticipated, and is now trading near 1.3850. A continued downward move is possible, with the next major support level around 1.3450.

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