What Happens to the US Economy When Freight Dries Up?

What Happens to the US Economy When Freight Dries Up?
Is this the hard data we should really be worried about?

A recent chart from Craig Fuller, CEO of FreightWaves – a leading freight data company – paints a troubling picture of the state of the US goods economy. The chart tracks outbound freight volumes: compared to last year (green line), the index is currently 10% lower, with a 15% drop since February and no signs of recovery in sight.

Fuller issues a clear warning:

Source: https://x.com/FreightAlley/status/1915572970057306287

“The freight data is a warning sign for where the goods economy is heading if things don’t turn around soon.”

The White House is paying close attention to these developments. Larry Bessent, in a recent statement, also pointed to the sharp decline in container ship orders – another indicator suggesting turbulence in global trade.

What makes this data even more significant is that freight volumes tend to lead official economic data by 4 to 8 weeks. In other words, the broader impact of this slowdown may only begin to show up in economic reports in the coming months.

To add to the concern: the first shipments from China subject to new US tariffs are only now arriving at American ports. Cargo that was already en route had been exempt – until now.

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