What Happens to the US Economy When Freight Dries Up?

by Marcus Klebe
06:33, 2025/04/25

What Happens to the US Economy When Freight Dries Up?
Is this the hard data we should really be worried about?

A recent chart from Craig Fuller, CEO of FreightWaves – a leading freight data company – paints a troubling picture of the state of the US goods economy. The chart tracks outbound freight volumes: compared to last year (green line), the index is currently 10% lower, with a 15% drop since February and no signs of recovery in sight.

Fuller issues a clear warning:

Source: https://x.com/FreightAlley/status/1915572970057306287

“The freight data is a warning sign for where the goods economy is heading if things don’t turn around soon.”

The White House is paying close attention to these developments. Larry Bessent, in a recent statement, also pointed to the sharp decline in container ship orders – another indicator suggesting turbulence in global trade.

What makes this data even more significant is that freight volumes tend to lead official economic data by 4 to 8 weeks. In other words, the broader impact of this slowdown may only begin to show up in economic reports in the coming months.

To add to the concern: the first shipments from China subject to new US tariffs are only now arriving at American ports. Cargo that was already en route had been exempt – until now.

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