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The German DAX cash index entered a recovery mode yesterday after hitting support near 13285, and continued to trade north today as well. Overall though, the index remains below the downside resistance line drawn from the high of January 5th, and thus, we see decent chances for the bears to take charge again.
This could happen from near the 13875 zone, marked by the low of April 12th, and could result in another slide towards the 13285 barrier, marked by yesterday’s low. If there are no buyers to be found near that zone, and the index indeed breaks lower, then we may experience larger declines, perhaps towards the low of March 7th, at around 12425.
Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI rebounded from slightly above its 30 line, while the MACD remains below both its zero and trigger lines. Both indicators detect negative momentum, but the fact that the RSI rebounded make us cautious that some further rebound may be looming before the next leg south.
Having said all that though, the recovery that will make us start considering the bullish case is above the 14900 territory, which acted as a key support between October 6th and February 14th, and was tested as a resistance on March 29th. A break above that key zone could initially target the high of February 21st, at 15230, the break of which could carry extensions towards the 15540 or 15740 zones, marked by the highs of February 16th and 1st respectively. Now, if neither territory is able to hold, then we could see the bulls pushing towards the peak of January 12th, at 16085.
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